Virus X: What kind of epidemics threaten humanity
We live in a world where they are about to invent a vaccine for cancer, but even the most up-to-date methods, technologies and innovations cannot slow down the development of viruses: every month we hear about new or resistant to treatment of old infections - and not to panic in such conditions is difficult. We understand why the idea of an epidemic so scares us, what threats exist in reality and how to protect ourselves.
Outbreak, epidemic, pandemic - what's the difference
An outbreak of the disease occurs when doctors register more cases in a certain place than expected. An outbreak can last from several months to several years, and the consequences can be most unpredictable if we are talking about an unknown, new to the community or a disease that has been absent for a long time. One example is the outbreak of black pox in Moscow in 1959-1960, which is described in the memoirs of the famous surgeon Yuri Shapiro.
Returning to Moscow from a creative business trip a day earlier, the artist Kukarekin went to his apartment to his mistress, with whom he spent the night - after which, checking the arrival of the flight from Delhi, "officially" arrived home to his wife. At night, Kukarekin felt bad, and the ambulance took the artist to the infectious disease ward of the Botkin Hospital, where he died some time later. A pathologist from Leningrad, who came to visit one of his colleagues, looking at the corpse, said it was nothing but black pox - a disease that seemed to be defeated in the USSR. First, the quarantine was imposed on the infectious disease ward, then on the entire hospital, and after the competent authorities learned that both his wife and Kukarekin's lover had carried his Indian gifts to the commissioner, it was decided to vaccinate the entire population of Moscow against smallpox. During this time, however, forty six people managed to get infected, three of whom died.
An epidemic occurs when an infectious disease spreads very quickly, so that the maximum number of people is at risk. In 2003, about 800 people died as a result of the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS): it all started with an intense outbreak of atypical pneumonia, which was later called SARS, in Guangdong Province of China in November 2002; later, the same outbreaks were recorded in other provinces and cities of mainland China, including Shanxi, Beijing, and then Hong Kong.
Fear is literally — and science has confirmed — contagious. In connection with the "raging" Ebola virus, US residents were so overwhelmed with such panic that the American media came up with a special term - fearbola.
The epidemic attracted public attention when an American businessman flying from China to Singapore felt unwell. The plane was landed in Hanoi, where the businessman died shortly after hospitalization. The Italian doctor Carlo Urbani, who was the first to realize that something new and dangerous was in front of him, managed to examine him and immediately informed the WHO and the government of Vietnam about it. Urbani himself died in March 2003 at the age of forty-six as a result of an infection received from some patient; the measures taken by WHO on its recommendations supposedly saved millions of lives. If we talk about modern epidemics, WHO’s concern causes cholera in Yemen (mainly due to the lack of good-quality drinking water and medicines, since the intestinal infection, which is the causative agent of Vibrio cholerae, is easily cured) and Ebola in Congo.
Finally, a pandemic is a global outbreak of the disease, one of the most devastating examples of which is HIV / AIDS. It is assumed that the virus originates from Congo and could be transmitted to humans from monkeys by contact with blood during a hunt. Research is ongoing, but an effective vaccine against HIV does not yet exist. On the other hand, highly active antiretroviral therapy slows the progression of the disease and allows people living with HIV to live a full life while scientists are trying to think of something. A full decoding of the structure of HIV and the structural features of the gp41 protein involved in the infection process, as well as the infection process first recorded on video, should help. Scientists from Harvard University have successfully tested the drug, designed to save from infection, on monkeys - and more recently demonstrated the safety of a potential vaccine in healthy volunteers.
The epidemic of fear: why we fear epidemics
Joseph Ledoux, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at New York University, is convinced that we learn patterns of fear in the same way as many others since childhood. In other words, in order to fear not just everything, but only real dangers, you need to get some experience, information and an example of those around you. Fear is literally — and science has confirmed — contagious. In connection with the "raging" Ebola virus, US residents were so overwhelmed with such panic that the American media came up with a special term - fearbola. According to Paul Slovic, Ph.D. from the University of Oregon, reports of a potential threat “hit all the red buttons at the same time”: the virus can be deadly, it is invisible, difficult to defend against it, the mechanisms are not clear and it is not known who controls the situation.
Studying how people perceive risks, psychologists have come to an interesting conclusion: we tend to react more to epidemics, terrorist acts and other extreme events, even when personal risk is minimized, but things that are dangerous for us, like flu, we can not react at all. Studies show that the amygdala can be responsible for what is happening - an area of the brain that is simultaneously associated with fear and novelty, which reacts more actively to something unfamiliar. In addition, people are more susceptible to panic, who in general do not tolerate uncertainty.
The media and flashy headlines, of course, also do not help. Studies on the topic suggest that the greater the information coverage of a certain event, the greater the anxiety of people in connection with what is happening. Experts believe that it’s possible not to let fear take over control, at least by getting the maximum amount of weighted information about the virus or the epidemic itself. National governments are encouraged to actively engage the media when it comes to vaccination or the necessary precautions.
The most dangerous - the mysterious "virus X"
The history of epidemics and pandemics is frighteningly diverse. In 430 BC, smallpox killed more than 30 thousand people in Athens, reducing the city’s population by at least 20%. Justinian's plague, which lasted from 541 to 750 years as separate outbreaks, totally killed almost 50 million people. From 1347 to 1351 there was a "black sea" pandemic of the plague, which resulted in, according to various estimates, up to 200 million people. In 1918-1919, Spaniard was infected with nearly 30% of the world's population, and claimed the most massive flu pandemic 50-100 million lives. In 1952, almost 60 thousand American children were infected with polio, more than 3 thousand of them died (the vaccine was invented three years later).
Since the identification of HIV as the cause of AIDS, more than 25 million people have died. In 2016, WHO expressed concern about the spread of Zika virus, transmitted through mosquito bites in tropical regions and causing serious neurological disorders. These are just excerpts from a much more extensive list, to which you can add cases of mass psychogenic diseases, when a group of people experiences the same symptoms without an obvious physical or environmental cause. Such, for example, was the dance plague of 1518 in Strasbourg, the epidemic of laughter in Tanganyika in 1962 or the epidemic of Corot, associated with the fear of drawing the penis into the abdominal cavity, in 1967 in Singapore.
The next pandemic may begin from a disease of which we do not know, and it may be caused by a pathogen that is not yet open at all. It can be created by nature, and maybe - in the laboratory.
In addition to the ubiquitous Ebola virus and not yet treatable by HIV, Marburg virus, which causes hemorrhagic fever, rabies virus that destroys the brain without timely treatment, hantaviruses spreading through rodents, Dengue fever virus, also known are among the most dangerous viruses on the planet. as a kostomol fever, and a flu virus, for a season from which, according to the WHO, about 50 thousand people worldwide die. The list of potential epidemics in 2018, compiled annually by WHO, also included the "virus X". Unlike the other pathogens listed, nothing is known about it at all.
WHO representatives explain that they added "virus X" to the list of threats, recognizing the fact: the next pandemic can start from a disease that we don’t know, and it can be caused by a pathogen that is not yet open. It can be created by nature, and maybe - in the laboratory; synthetic biology allows you to create deadly new viruses that spread very quickly. In any case, the introduction of "virus X" in this list, scientists did not want to scare anyone - just pay attention that the world needs to be prepared for something like that. Researchers, for example, already know for sure that mankind is facing another global flu epidemic. Another question is how serious it will be.
Vaccination as a solution
WHO notes that in 2017, 25 countries immediately reported a decrease in vaccination volumes compared to 2010, and recalls that vaccinations are extremely important, even if we are talking about seemingly eradicated deadly diseases - they, alas, have a tendency to return. The most recent example is a measles outbreak in Europe, presumably associated with a non-optimal vaccination coverage.
It is wrong to think that only children need vaccination. It is clear that you may need vaccinations for travel (in Saudi Arabia, for example, pilgrims are strongly recommended to be vaccinated against meningococcal meningitis and some other infections). But also standard "children's vaccines" it makes sense to update in adulthood; for example, whooping cough vaccination is recommended for pregnant women and anyone planning to have contact with babies. During infectious outbreaks, vaccination is not only useful, but absolutely necessary - therefore, vaccination against influenza is recommended every year.
Recall that the two most frequent concerns about vaccinations - about their connection with autism and that they may impair immunity - are not substantiated. A sensational article about the connection between vaccination and autism was withdrawn, and its author was deprived of a medical license. As for the suppression of immunity - it is also imaginary, as stated by American researchers, who checked 944 children aged 2 to 4 years to this effect. In addition, if in the first months after birth the baby is really protected by natural parental antibodies, then very soon he becomes vulnerable to most diseases. Natural immunity against dangerous diseases, such as measles, whooping cough, diphtheria or tetanus, can be formed only after an illness - and, unfortunately, it can lead to serious consequences or death. Obviously, there is no point in exposing a small person to such a danger when there is effective vaccination.
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