Economist Irina Yasina on how to manage money in a crisis
Among the vast number of phenomena, about which we know nothing, the economy stands out: we do not understand well enough what it is, how it works, whether it is worth panicking during a crisis and, most importantly, what to do with money now. Irina Yasina, an economist and human rights activist, daughter of the former Minister of Economy Yevgeny Yasin, helped us find the answers to these questions. In 2008-2011, Irina was a member of the Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights, worked as the program director of the Open Russia Foundation and headed the Center for Social Ratings of the RIA Novosti agency. In 2012, Yasina entered the top five most influential women in Russia in the social sphere, according to Echo of Moscow, RIA Novosti, Interfax and Ogonek magazine. Irina Yasina told us how to understand that the economic crisis has come, when and what to save on, where to keep money and how to manage your finances properly.
Let's start with the main thing: the ruble, the dollar or the euro?
Spread everything equally into three piles, if there is, of course, what to lay out. And then the losses in one are offset by the growth of the other - according to the results in your portfolio equilibrium is formed. As a rule, we all do not hurt the rich people, so what is there, in that we spend. I can not say that I have any long money that I need to save at all costs. It depends on the size of the wallet.
You have heard the story of one of the interpretations of biblical predictions - Europe is supposed to try to unite in an alliance, but nothing happens? And therefore, many, on the basis of this, do not make deposits in euro at all, expecting that a collapse will take place there sometime.
The Bible is not Nostradamus at all, and there are naturally no direct predictions there - the essence of this book is different. But waiting for the collapse of Europe can be long. I sincerely think that this will never happen. You know, we have such a mythologized consciousness. We try to find some omens of collapse in one direction, then in the other, but we pay little attention to ourselves. But in general it is worth.
Is there an economic crisis now and how does it manifest itself for an ordinary person?
There is a crisis. It manifests itself primarily in the fact that we see a rise in prices in stores, and every month, paying for utility bills, we pay an increasing part of our earnings. My salary is not growing, but all expenses are growing, and most people do the same. The authorities say that annual inflation is unlikely to be more than six percent, but even that is already quite a lot. Besides, I'm not very sure that they will be able to withstand this figure. Most likely, the annual inflation will be more, that is, the money will depreciate more, and we will be able to buy less with the money earned. These are the main manifestations of the crisis. The things that are less noticeable to the simple eye are a complete lack of investment: people who can invest money simply do not want to do this, business activity and security of the economy are falling. The economy is good, in which there is a lot of medium and small business, and not just state large corporations. We are getting less and less.
So we should start saving?
You should always keep in mind that savings should have a goal: if you just want to save for something big and bright (buy an apartment), then you need to go to the bank and see that the interest on deposits is more than the inflation rate. At the same time, you need to check whether it is not scary to deposit money in this bank. Of course, compared to what was, inflation is not very big. In state banks, the interest on deposits is lower than the percentage of inflation, so the money saved there will continue to lose value. If you have something to buy, then buy now, do not save.
And which bank is better to trust - private or public? Suppose I now have 300 thousand rubles and I want to buy a car, but due to the lack of funds I put money in the bank "for growth". Which bank will they not get lost in? In the Savings Bank?
In the Savings Bank they will not be lost, but they will be worthless. Everyone should choose their own bank and realize that where there is more profitability there is a higher risk. And where there is more risk, there is ugly. And where the yield is small, there is a small risk. I would not count on interest in the bank in an attempt to buy a car. Because if it is a reliable bank, then under the current economic situation, it will not pay. A person should include brains and compare, even if he is a cheerful blonde.
That is, it is better to keep money in an envelope?
The bank has at least some profitability, which helps to save money with inflation. And we have a fairly high inflation. Better in the bank.
What is it worth to spend or postpone?
It seems to me that now it is best to give birth to more children and invest in their education. In conditions when you and I will not have any pensions, and even if they are, they are ridiculously small, the only hope that we will be fed by children.
For the rise in prices for what exactly is it worth preparing in the next six months?
Prices are rising for everything. Maybe in the summer the prices for fruits will not grow. Carrot, beetroot, that's all. This is a difficult process.
There is a slightly apocalyptic question: how long will it all last?
He is not at all apocalyptic, as you said, but completely normal. You see, our economy is very dependent on politics. As long as this government or any other will pursue a policy similar to the one it is pursuing now - with the annexation of foreign territories, unlimited budget expenditures on megaprojects - we will feel the crisis more and more. As soon as any government begins to pursue a more balanced policy and think not about megaprojects, but about people, the situation will change. But I do not think that this will happen soon.
That is, in the next ten years, we should forget about some kind of equilibrium in the economy?
Well, I would forget. Let it remain such an impossible dream.
When you and I will not have any pensions, and even if they are, they are ridiculously small, the only hope that we will be fed by children
What to do with real estate? What is going on in this market?
You can sell the apartment now, put money in the bank and wait until they grow up and do not lose their value, or expect that the apartment in two years will sell more. In principle, it can be sold and cheaper, because as economic conditions worsen, real estate prices can fall. In any case, they will not grow. I think real estate prices will still be lower than in these fat zero years. Such a number of signals about the deterioration of the economic situation suggests that there will be no more money and there will not be more rich people either. Therefore, it is likely that selling an apartment at a price two years ago will be unrealistic.
A question that is acute for creative people, especially in the journalistic sphere. Is it worth changing jobs now?
This is definitely a personal question. If you have a good offer, then it is worth it, if not, then what is there to talk about.
I'll explain now. There are professions about which our parents like to say: “you always have enough for a piece of bread”, - doctor, lawyer, economist.
You know, it's always unpredictable. I love the story told by director Kirill Serebrennikov. His parents, when he finished, in my opinion, the Physics Department of Rostov State University, told him: "You know that. Go to the defense enterprise to work - nothing will ever happen to him." The nineties came, and this defense enterprise was the first to close. True, thanks to this we got a good director. You yourself understand that everything is unpredictable, but the main thing is not to change the awl on soap.
That is, now there is no sustainable profession?
We have officials now a very respected profession.
And how do you stay up to date with the situation in the economic sphere? What editions do you read?
Sometimes I read the Financial Times - quite a reasonable newspaper. Or The Wall Street Journal. I browse them on the internet.
And from the Russian editions?
With the closure of "Tapes.ru" it became, of course, very difficult. I obtained information through "Rain" and "Tape", and now there is actually neither one nor the other. Sometimes I watch the site "Echo of Moscow", "Elephant", "Snob".
Have you heard about BuzzFeed? They earned on the photos of cats and were able to afford to hire a Pulitzer Prize winner to head the investigation department. Do we have something like that really?
On the seals very real money. I really liked the expression: "The two pillars of the Russian Internet are porn and seals." And we have miracles, they just happen less often.
You said that you need to invest in the education of children. Does it make sense to invest in your own education, if you're under thirty?
Of course. Consider that you are still your own child. At least your parents should invest in you.
Even in Russia and in the current unstable situation?
And where to go? Suppose everyone dreams to go abroad. But they still need to understand that not everyone is lucky there. And it is quite possible to be left with nothing, and where there are neither friends, nor an apartment, nor a grandmother, who will die and leave an inheritance. Each person expects that he will win. But it is completely optional.
But if now there is no request from the state for science, then in principle, why get an education?
If there is no request from the state, then there may well be a request from private capital. Getting an education does not mean going to science. Getting an education means being more competitive in the labor market. A person with a good education goes to work the same lawyer in a good company. And with the formation of the university intake goes to work in some Sharashkin office.
Is there a certain direction now, where is it better to keep your nose in the wind? Is it IT?
All according to ability. If I had a choice and I was 17 years old, then I would go to chemistry, biophysics, biochemistry, medicine, perhaps, to pharmacology - very promising industries. It is good to be a brilliant physicist or mathematician, but only uniquely brilliant.
Here, for example, the guys who are leaving to work abroad, say that they are always a level below the others, and therefore ask questions about local education and its feasibility. What needs to be done so that children receive a normal education and we can influence this process?
You do not want the answer about politics. This only exacerbates the situation. People just do not understand that not thinking about politics is not thinking about your future. Now the policy pursued by the top is like huge rails across the road we are driving.
And what does joining the WTO mean? How did this affect us now, what will change in the future?
We behave as if we had entered the WTO in order to deceive everyone - such behavior is incompatible with the accession. We always know how to circumvent slingshots, which, as a rule, put in the way of unfair competition. In principle, if it is normal to work within the framework of the WTO, then an entrepreneur who produces more expensive products goes bankrupt. Consumer always wins. The WTO simply increases competition, but this is what you want. It should be understood that the consumer is always in the black, if there is more competition. If the rules of the game were respected, we would get cheaper cars, for example. WTO is good for the consumer.
I truly believe that as long as men rule in Russia, we will not have anything good.
Is there any category of spending that must always be discarded?
Again, everything is very individual. There are people who do not want to spend on the education of children, but who dream to buy a TV. Someone lives in a tiny apartment and buys a posh Mercedes. I had such a neighbor: I lived in a Khrushchev apartment in a two-room apartment with my wife, children, and parents — and rode a stunning Mercedes. Honestly, I looked at him like an idiot. There can be no general answer. Each person chooses that in accordance with his wealth, firstly, mental abilities, secondly, and habits, thirdly.
I noticed that in the circles of my friends such hysteria about the economy and about money develops a little. How to stop thinking about what to do with money, because the history of Russia shows that you need to forget about them?
Neither in Russia, nor anywhere else in the world, is an adult responsible sexually mature person, whether woman or man, not thinking about money. With the exception, perhaps, of incredibly rich people who still need to think about how to preserve their capital, or, in contrast, some kind of yoga who eats a handful of rice and looks at his navel. Always and everywhere people think about money. You can not find a person other than these borderline situations, which relaxes. In the end, we are adults and responsible. Children and old people can relax. And we need to spend wisely.
Well, what about the things that are under our control? Monitoring inflation?
Yes, you have to watch prices grow. Understand at what point it becomes vital to buy what you are counting on. It may be better to take a loan, then you buy it faster. See what is more important to you: save money or have this benefit, be it a washing machine or a car.
Russian credit conditions are such that it is a complete bondage.
Of course, but nonetheless, people are getting into it. And they do it sometimes irresponsibly, because the percentage of loaning is terribly high. That is, when a person takes one loan because he cannot pay off the other. I don’t remember the numbers now, but the number of over-credited and indebted people is simply terrifying. But all this is very irresponsible. It seems that you will have the opportunity, like the Soviet authorities in the eighteenth year, to recognize the debts as "enslaving and invalid." Plus, it's a matter of choice, again. My businessman husband never took money on credit, but at the same time he understood that his business would remain small. Because only for credit resources that you can afford, you can develop very strongly. Who wants to be satisfied with what is, does not take credit.
What if you want to open a business in Russia? You can say: "do not create a business in Russia, it's all useless"?
Of course not. We have a huge country, 140 million people, and someone is lucky, someone is not lucky. There is an expression that I love very much: "Lucky to the lucky one."
And finally, the classic question in the style of Wonderzine. Do you believe that women in Russia are historically stronger and control everything, although it is not obvious?
I see very smart women in high positions. At the same time, in the State Duma, I see so many fools who are simply impassable, which makes me ashamed when a woman in authority associates with these purses like Lakhova and Mizulina. At the same time, there are very clever and wonderful women in the government - for example, Olga Golodets, Elvira Nabiullina, Olga Dergunova. I sincerely believe that as long as men rule in Russia, we will not have anything good.
Photo: Masha Kushnir