Fires are only the beginning: What are we facing global warming?
In California, that day is not Forest fires abate: at least 42 people died, more than two hundred more are unaccounted for. The fires of the autumn of 2018 have already been recognized as the most destructive in the history of the state: they destroyed more than seven thousand structures, most of which were residential buildings.
SASHA SAVINA
In part, what has happened is associated with global warming and climate change. Of course, the scale of fires depends on many factors: the strength and direction of the wind, the area where a fire breaks out, or, for example, how strong the likelihood is that a fire will arise in principle - say, if there are many tourists in a place that carelessly handled with fire, the risk just rises. At the same time, the current environmental situation greatly interferes with the situation. Over the past half century, the average temperature in California has greatly increased - because of this, there are more arid areas in the forests of the state, which, in turn, increases the risk and strength of a fire. Not surprisingly, fifteen of the twenty most powerful forest fires in California occurred after 2000.
This is not the only danger that awaits humanity in connection with global warming. In October, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced that it was preparing a large-scale international report on how to reduce the rate and effects of global warming, and presented some of its frightening results. The situation is very serious: scientists insist that changing the current state of affairs is “a matter of life and death,” and if we want to change the situation, governments of different countries will have to act quickly, decisively and harmoniously.
In 2015, 197 countries of the world signed the Paris Agreement on Climate: the participants agreed to strive not to increase the average temperature on earth by more than two degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era (we are now at one degree, and the current world situation leads us to three degrees). According to the IPCC estimates, the figure should be even lower: experts believe that if the temperature rises not by two, but by one and a half degrees, many irreversible effects of climate change could be avoided. At the same time, the chances that this will happen in the near future are few: there were no sanctions for violating the terms of the Paris Agreement, and last year Donald Trump announced that the United States was withdrawing from it because of the "draconian" restrictions of the coal industry. We decided to figure out what else global warming threatens us with - and for what it’s time for all of us to prepare.
Many animals will die out
Of course, global warming will affect not only people, but also all kinds of living creatures on earth. The most vivid example of those who will be touched most warmly is corals: according to the IPCC estimates, with an “optimistic” forecast and warming by one and a half rather than two degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, the number of coral reefs will decrease by 70-90%. When warming by two degrees Celsius, almost all world corals will disappear - less than one percent will remain. It’s all to blame for the rising temperature of the World Ocean: corals that live in symbiotic relations with algae react very sharply even to its minimal change. Warming violates the symbiotic relations that corals enter (this leads to their so-called discoloration - they don’t become almost white without symbiotes), and if the situation does not return to normal quickly enough, the corals may die of starvation.
Coral reefs are not the only possible victims of global warming. In addition to them, for example, polar bears and ringed seals suffer. Bears feed on seals and catch them on drifting ice floes - but if the ice melts or disappears altogether, the bears have to spend more effort and time searching for food and, as a result, it is more difficult to gain fat mass, which will help to live the rest of the year without problems. The population of seals also declines: they plant and nurse offspring on ice floes, and if the sea ice becomes less or they become less durable, it creates a danger to animals and their offspring. And this is not a complete list: dozens of species and entire ecosystems can suffer from climate change - many will have to change their habitat, and, alas, not everyone will adapt to this.
Some cities will flood
The first thing that is associated with global warming, even among those who did not study the issue very deeply, is the rise in the level of the World Ocean and, as a result, flooding. If the global temperature growth rate does not decrease and it rises by 3.2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era (we are moving to this figure today), according to estimates by the non-profit organization Climate Central, potentially flooded areas where hundreds of millions of people live - and most of all the consequences will hit the people of Asia. If we go back to the UN report, then when the temperature rises by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial era, the level of the World Ocean in 2100 will be higher by 0.4 meters compared to the level of 1986-2005. If the temperature is higher by 2 degrees Celsius, the level of the World Ocean will rise by 0.46 meters. The higher the temperature, the more people will suffer from floods: with an increase of two degrees, 79 million people will be at risk (provided that the population stays where they are now), and one and a half degrees 69 million. In addition, the faster the climate and ocean level changes, the less time people have to adapt to change and change their lifestyle.
Abnormal droughts and downpours await the world
Researchers note that global warming affects the water cycle in nature - as a result, weather anomalies and more extreme weather conditions are waiting for us. This connection may not seem obvious, but everything is explained quite simply. On the one hand, the higher the air temperature, the more water vapor can be contained in it. On the other hand, warmer air enhances the evaporation of moisture. Experts note that in the future, under such conditions, the humidity of the air will increase, which can lead to more heavy rains and more frequent flooding and flooding. In this case, increased evaporation can lead to periods of drought and abnormal heat. Apparently, the climate may become sharper: heat and drought will alternate with intense rainfall.
The higher the average temperature rises, the more serious consequences await us. If the temperature rises by one and a half degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, then 14% of the world's population will encounter abnormally hot weather at least once every five years. If the figure grows by two degrees Celsius, it waits for more than a third of the world's inhabitants. It is important to understand that not only the heat itself is terrible, but its possible consequences: forest fires (as in California this fall), increased mortality due to heat and difficulties with food.
Some countries will miss the product
Due to the changing climate, agriculture, livestock and fishing will change dramatically. For example, rising ocean levels can affect rice fields and fish farms — territories may become unsuitable for relevant industries. Changes in ocean temperature can affect whole species of fish: because of warming, they can migrate and in the new environment they will have to compete for food with other species - which, quite possibly, will affect the population.
Increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can promote plant growth, but at the same time adversely affect the nutritional value of certain grains and fruits, such as barley, rice, wheat or potatoes. And if in some regions it will become easier to grow plants and vegetables due to warming, in others the conditions for familiar crops will become impossible. The point is not only that the temperature may cease to be optimal for the growth and development of a particular crop, but also how climate change will affect insect pests and plant diseases: it is quite possible that they will spread to regions where they used to be was not, and the plants will not be able to quickly adapt to them.
Finally, drought and rain showers that are more comprehensible to us, also caused by global warming, can lead to a reduction or a complete loss of the crop - and this may threaten a shortage of products in certain regions.
PHOTO: Anton Balazh - stock.adobe.com, Africa Studio - stock.adobe.com
