What will happen to the world in 81 years
Text: Ivan Sorokin
Late last week An annual report on global gender differences for 2014 was published on the website of the World Economic Forum. Among the conclusions of these figures is a moderately optimistic forecast of scientists: if the dynamics in this area remain at the same level, then on Earth will establish gender equality, however, only after 81 years. We became interested - and what else awaits us (more precisely, our children and grandchildren) in 2095? What if, in addition to universal equality, we also expect universal poverty or something worse? Of course, one should never discount the thrust of mankind to completely self-destruct, but we nevertheless decided to consider less apocalyptic predictions on a number of vital points.
Oil production
The danger of running out of fossil resources concerns most of them (in particular, certain concerns exist about gold), but, of course, oil is most of all interested in oil. There are several problems in forecasting in this area: first, it is not very clear how much the structure of consumption of oil and oil products will change (will we switch to renewable sources of energy, will we partially reject plastics); secondly, the forecast can be made only on explored deposits; thirdly, these factors do not always take into account economic factors associated with production costs; Fourthly, it is not always clear how exactly to take into account changes in the population of the Earth. Nevertheless, even the most pessimistic forecasts suggest that the currently known oil reserves will be fully developed over the next hundred years - if the level of production remains about the same. Venezuela, Canada and Saudi Arabia were the most fortunate - the oil remained the most there.
Lifespan
The average life expectancy can be called almost the most understandable marker of the quality of life; nevertheless, in reports on the growth of the well-being of developed nations, attention is rarely paid to how strongly such changes affect society. By the middle of the century, most of the population of Japan, Korea will be over 50; at about the same time in developed countries, the number of men and women over 65 will be greater than the number of adolescents and children under 15. All this leads to tectonic shifts in pop culture and politics, to an increase in the retirement age and the approach to the calculation of pensions, as well as to a much higher burden on health care.
The ethnic composition of the Earth
It is no secret that the share of developed countries in the population of the Earth has been declining for a long time and steadily - it is more interesting to know that this role also expects Asia in the future (despite the fact that population growth in India will eventually lead to the South Asian country soon this indicator in the world). Huge population growth in Africa will be provided by several countries, primarily by the main country of East Africa, Kenya and the main state of West Africa, Nigeria. Nigeria will need several decades to overtake the population of the United States, and the total share of African countries in the structure of the world population will grow from the current 15% to at least 25% (or rather, to 30-35%).
Global warming
There is no doubt that global warming caused by anthropogenic factors is a reality, in a wide circle of climatologists and geographers there is no - only leading talk shows on various TV channels that receive money for conspiracy theories can seriously doubt this. The scientific question that is really on the agenda is: how much will the average temperature of the atmosphere increase over the coming decades? There are a lot of prognostic charts, and the most optimistic of them suggests an increase of one degree Celsius, while the most pessimistic indicate five degrees Celsius - which will lead to catastrophic climate changes throughout the planet. Anyway, Venice, Amsterdam, San Francisco, St. Petersburg, Mumbai and Tokyo should be seriously worried - just like the entire population of Maldives and Bangladesh.
the Internet
In order not to concentrate on apocalyptic predictions, let's talk about progress: around 2010, with the widespread use of tablets, an explosive growth began in the number of devices adapted to enter the global network - now these are not only stationary computers, laptops and phones, but also devices in cars, and wearable devices, and household appliances. It is predicted that by 2020 the total number of such devices will reach 50 billion and after this figure the growth will become exponential - while predicting the position of the saturation point of the market so far no one dares. It all sounds like William Gibson’s dream come true - or the terrible nightmare of the Terminator fan. Of course, that to "Skynet", that to us, "Matrix" is still far away, but important steps towards full cyborgization and total information connectedness of humanity have already been taken.
Photo: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 via Shutterstock